Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 43.539577 47.755816 52.441409 58.083496 64.760010 72.495981 82.269868
2025-02-23 36.987879 42.390602 48.853240 57.322497 68.401791 82.831974 103.856269
2025-03-02 32.859115 38.688206 45.991321 56.113371 70.320201 90.527375 123.640432
2025-03-09 30.111890 36.179452 44.055161 55.465744 72.440711 98.518056 146.274444
2025-03-16 27.512722 33.519773 41.511174 53.461846 72.021219 102.282206 163.046466
2025-03-23 26.687155 33.092031 41.885645 55.594883 78.166915 118.234035 210.974252
2025-03-30 25.279506 31.718678 40.750229 55.243058 80.127395 127.220377 249.729135
2025-04-06 23.939932 30.324113 39.434861 54.407432 81.044734 134.380438 289.418622
2025-04-13 22.467727 28.636128 37.539638 52.405833 79.499731 135.938460 314.201689
2025-04-20 22.074063 28.471082 37.910033 54.170060 85.279487 155.684062 424.732430
2025-04-27 21.626960 28.188289 38.060974 55.556821 90.587621 176.630603 584.456136
2025-05-04 21.069100 27.698611 37.836808 56.237266 94.559794 195.986040 799.649859
2025-05-11 20.281699 26.843040 37.005379 55.803657 96.232572 210.270455 1061.094830
2025-05-18 19.479938 25.926393 36.017606 54.987305 96.932440 222.215466 1406.935431
2025-05-25 18.687359 24.982610 34.921466 53.849642 96.668548 230.945768 1839.156249
2025-06-01 18.052519 24.254056 34.138764 53.242736 97.605550 245.015890 2724.859585
2025-06-08 17.245248 23.217818 32.775872 51.364105 95.017102 243.821542 3235.551659
2025-06-15 17.142190 23.293669 33.315997 53.363692 102.946173 294.190317 15762.420697
2025-06-22 16.672477 22.756494 32.755236 53.034082 104.513146 316.667354 162878.117998
2025-06-29 16.164042 22.135221 32.011808 52.250898 104.655561 332.207231 NaN
2025-07-06 15.521164 21.272091 30.799478 50.373052 101.305709 325.436240 NaN
2025-07-13 15.434696 21.315777 31.206153 52.028340 108.875347 395.498252 NaN
2025-07-20 15.296559 21.266303 31.439064 53.328037 115.785366 476.904391 NaN